In a few weeks, Google will unveil its annual ranking of the year's most popular keywords. Where will ChatGPT land in that ranking? In 2023, OpenAI's conversational AI was at the heart of debates, inspiring wonder among users, showcasing impressive applications, and triggering a technological shift in how we use artificial intelligence. However, it also became the center of controversies surrounding plagiarism, intellectual property, and AI's limitations. For the first time in many years, Google felt the ground shake beneath its feet. Users can now get answers to their questions without relying on Google. OpenAI's impact was like a mosquito bite that jolts you awake in the middle of the night. Indeed, the search giant seemed to have grown complacent, with its search engine's user experience barely evolving. Moreover, Google Assistant still struggles with basic tasks, like setting reminders, providing accurate sports scores, or giving weather updates.
As is often the case, the market leader hesitated to disrupt the established order, because that order allowed it to maintain its dominant position.
However, the game has changed. Facing this threat on its own turf, Google is currently working on a counterattack by developing its update called SGE (Search Generative Experience). Currently in beta testing in the United States, India, and Japan, this conversational interface allows users to get answers formulated in natural language.
The AI-generated answer box now occupies a prominent place between sponsored results (SEA) and organic results (SEO). If the accuracy of the answers provided by AI proves solid, this could satisfy both users and Google by reducing the incentive to use ChatGPT or Bing. Google could thus maintain its dominant position. On the other hand, website publishers could be directly affected, as the appeal of visiting their content might diminish—Google would have already extracted the essential information. This major shift in the search experience could be rolled out in France in early 2024, or even late 2023. Change is imminent.
Website publishers find themselves once again facing a difficult choice imposed by Google. If they accept the terms, Google will appropriate their content and a significant chunk of their traffic. If they refuse, their competitors will take what's left of the pie. Either way, the share of internet traffic to divvy up will shrink, with fewer middlemen. Google typically justifies these changes in the name of user experience and provides tools to allow or prohibit the use of their content. There are several notable precedents, including featured snippets, discussions around Google News and neighboring rights, and Google Shopping, which was considered an abuse of dominant position by the European Court of Justice.
Publishers are acutely aware of the challenges they face. In particular, those whose business model relies on buying guides and affiliate marketing are vulnerable. They depend heavily on organic search and risk losing about 80% of their traffic due to the Google SGE update. Ultimately, this could translate to a similar loss in revenue. Traffic sources appear less frequently in SGE box results, and users have less incentive to visit them, since a large portion of the answer is already provided, sometimes with elements from Google Shopping. To mitigate this impact, certain approaches are being considered, but their implementation will depend on negotiations between Google and publisher associations, and possibly court rulings.
Discover for news, Google Shopping for conversions?
A solution could come from Discover, a personalized feed of articles developed by Google over several years, accessible exclusively on mobile. It offers another way for users to access content and has become an important traffic source for many publishers. We're currently seeing interesting developments in this area: initially, Google highlighted very recent articles, dating back only a few days. However, it no longer hesitates to suggest older articles (some over 10 years old) that are relevant when users show sudden interest in a new topic. Among these articles are buying guides, comparisons, informative content, and comprehensive pages dedicated to a particular subject. These developments mirror best practices in SEO optimization. Publishers could thus recover some of the traffic they risk losing with the SGE update, especially since Google is currently testing the integration of Discover on desktop computers.
However, these articles are often accessed via Discover very early in the purchase journey, when users aren't yet ready to buy. They're still in the research phase, checking reviews on various products across Google and other apps like TikTok or Instagram, before perhaps searching on Google to find the site with the best price. In that case, the transaction could easily be credited to Google or its Google Shopping service, in a world where it will become increasingly difficult to compensate all the players who influenced the purchase decision. These mechanisms are hard to predict, since these are merely examples of possible scenarios, and they don't necessarily reflect reality in October 2023. The real impact of Google SGE can only be assessed after its public launch, but many publishers risk significant losses, particularly those who haven't diversified their traffic sources and revenue streams.
